It has been months since a hurricane posed a real threat to oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Now, Hurricane Ida is entering the region from the west after doing significant damage in Nicaragua.

Most hurricanes that move into the Gulf end up doing very little damage to either deep sea drilling platforms or the refineries around Houston, but traders still get nervous about the potential interruption in oil supply. According to the Financial Times, the Gulf of Mexico accounts for almost 25% of U.S. oil production.

Some of the money managers at fund and money management firm Franklin Resources (BEN) must be clairvoyant. They bought Cadbury (CBY) shares before Kraft (KFT) made its buyout offer for the U.K. company. Franklin now owns at least 7.2% of Cadbury's shares.

Speaking at a conference in Vienna, Franklin fund manager Anne Gudefin, whose Mutual Global Discovery Fund holds the Cadbury shares, said "We have an idea" of a bid price for Cadbury that would be acceptable, according to a report from Bloomberg. Franklin bought a lot of the stock at below 550 pence per share. Cadbury closed trading Friday at 758 pence. A better bid from Kraft could take the shares higher.

The conventional wisdom is that consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. And consumer spending arises out of consumer confidence. Unfortunately, the signals along the road to economic recovery are mixed, what with the rising GDP growth and the dismal unemployment numbers. Its enough to leave investors scratching their heads. What barometers of consumer confidence will the coming week bring?

The TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is scheduled for Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is due out Friday.

The weekly blizzard of economic statistics makes it tough to figure out what is really going on. But with a near-record number of people unemployed or underemployed, productivity at very high levels, and pay rising for the people who still have jobs, one conclusion seems to jump out: Companies are getting smarter about who they keep, how they manage the keepers, and who they fire.

Let's look at some of the numbers. The New York Times reports that what I would call wasted workers -- the combination of unemployed who are still looking for work, discouraged workers who have given up looking, and part-time workers seeking full-time jobs -- has hit a record 17.5%. This beats the previous record of 17.1% set in the midst of the Paul Volcker-led recession of 1982. (Then-Fed Chair Volcker's recession resulted from his decision to raise interest rates up to 20% to break the back of inflation.)

After seven months of one of the strongest rallies in history, the stock market is showing signs of faltering. From here on out through the rest of 2009, I believe the advance will shift gears, and instead of recording new highs every month, the trend will tend to flatten.

And as we head into the heart of the fourth quarter, I wouldn't bet on the market making many more new highs this year.